Finding Value at the Running Back Position: Five Sleepers in the 2018 NFL Draft

Following Trent Richardson being taken third overall in the 2012 NFL Draft, the running back spot went without a player being selected in the first round over the next two years. It wasn't until Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon went in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft that the position has had a string of three consecutive drafts where a prospect was chosen within the first 32 selections. Since then Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey, and Leonard Fournette have heard their names called near the top of the draft. However, other notable productive ball carriers during that span of time have been selected beyond the first day of the draft.

Value at the position has proven to be available throughout the entirety of the draft with players Carlos Hyde (2014), David Johnson (2015), and Devonta Freeman (2014) being selected in the second, third, and fourth rounds, respectively. Other quality backs also have emerged later from guys chosen in third day of the event as Jay Ajayi (2015), Latavius Murray, (2013) and Kerwynn Wiliiams (2013) went during the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds. 

In the undrafted free agent market, few other positions provide the quantity of quality returns on investments as players such as CJ Anderson, Isaiah Crowell, Thomas Rawls, and Rob Kelley have all had productive seasons within recent years. Just last year undrafted free agent rookie Corey Clement had a big impact on the Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl historic win, with four catches for 100 yards and one touchdown.

He was a part of a running back committee that included LeGarrette Blount —another player not taken in the draft — and Ajayi.  Missing from the game was dynamic veteran running back and return specialist Darren Sproles. Sproles was taken in the fourth round of the 2005 Draft, with the 130th selection. The previous year's Super Bowl hero James White also cracked the 100 yard threshold in receiving yards during the Patriots' victory, while scoring the game-winning touchdown. He too, like Sproles, was selected in the fourth round with the 130th overall pick — during 2014. 

Last season two of the three running backs to be named to the NFL All-Pro teams were selected beyond the first round in Le'Veon Bell (2nd round, 2013) and rookie Alvin Kamara (3rd round, 2017). Another two non-first round backs were chosen to the Pro Bowl in LeSean McCoy (2nd round, 2009) and another rookie Kareem Hunt (3rd round), who led the NFL in rushing during the 2017 season. 

This year Saquon Barkley of Penn State is considered not only the top running back, but is also believed by many to be the best player in the entire draft. Still, as with the various draft classes of the past, value shall remain beyond the initial round, as this year's class is considered to be a deep and talented group. Some prospects will be valued and, ultimately, selected higher than others. Though a few sleepers will certainly emerge from the bunch who weren't expected to have as much success as some of their peers. Here are five players that fit that mold whose names you should know ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft.

Ryan Nall, Oregon State

Nall was a bright spot on an otherwise dismal Oregon State team that went 1-11 in 2017 and often struggled to open up holes for him to run. At 6'2, 232 pounds he is a big, physical back that plays to his size and doesn't mess around when carrying the rock. While he isn't the fastest or flashiest back, Nall does possess above-avaerage footwork and overall feel when running the ball. An added strength is his patience and vision which accentuates his ability as a ball carrier.

Though not your prototypical "third down back" he encapsulates all the necessary traits to be a successful one. An accomplished receiver, as illustrated by his 56 career receptions for 563 yards, Nall is a more than capable option out of the backfield. Additionally, he is an effective pass protector that is also a competent run blocker when asked. His combination of size and ability makes him an ideal candidate for a team that likes to utilize one of their bigger running backs as a hybrid fullback/H-back. With his stature and no-nonsense running style, he should present a powerful presence in short yardage and red zone situations.

When evaluating Nall he most reminds me of former NFL running backs Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis, both of whom played at least seven seasons.

Nyheim Hines, North Carolina State

A former NCAA All-American in track and field, Hines owns speed that isn't found amongst many backs. Not only evident on film, Hines ran the fastest recorded 40 yard dash of all running backs at this year's NFL Scouting Combine with an official time of 4.38.

At 5'8, 193 pounds, Hines plays bigger than his size would suggest. Not only capable of eluding defenders in the open field, he also shows the ability to run through contact and gain extra yards on the end of runs. Most effective in an outside zone running scheme, Hines also retains added value as a receiver and return man. Lining up in various spots along the NC State offense, he often created mismatches against linebackers and safeties. Both effective and consistent as a receiver throughout his career, he totaled at least 20 catches in each of his three seasons. In 2016 he played primarily as a receiver out of the slot, totaling 43 receptions for 525 yards.

Hines put together his best season in 2017, rushing for 1,113 yards at 5.6 yards per carry, with 12 scores, despite playing with an ankle injury. Also fielding punts for the first time, he averaged 11.3 yards per return with one touchdown. Throughout his career as kick returned he 24.7 yards per runback, with two additional scores.

All things considered, Hines is a bit reminiscent of New England Patriots running back James White, but with more speed. With that in mind, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him be selected in the same range as White was in 2014. 

Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss 

After having to sit out the 2016 season, Wilkins returned last year and put together the most productive season of his career. Having previously had a career high of 72 carries for a season, he more than doubled that with 155 in 2017. Wilkins proved effective with those carries, with an average of 6.5 yards each time he ran the ball . That was in line with his career average of 6.3 yards per carry, and actually a slight improvement, proving his ability to be efficient with an added workload.

More impressively, Wilkins was highly productive when facing elite competition. Against Alabama and LSU — two defenses with multiple NFL prospects amongst their defensive line and linebackers —he rushed for a combined 187 yards, on an excellent average of 7.5 yards a touch. Being 6'1, 216 pounds, he packages a solid combination of size, speed, and vision, which bodes well for success at the next level. Wilkins likes to plant his foot in the ground and make decisive cuts to get upfield. Once in the open field, he is an aware and elusive runner with stop-start ability.

Not having elite production in college has led to many NFL scouts placing modest comparisons upon him. However, when evaluating his film I see a lot of similarities to recently retired, former Pro Bowl running back Matt Forte. Whether Wilkins replicates the type of productivity or longevity Forte had remains to be seen. But his combination of size, physical ability, and playing/running style are very similar.

Chase Edmonds, Fordham 

Competing in the Patriot League of the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision), Edmonds was one of the most productive running backs in NCAA history, regardless of level. After garnering the Jerry Rice Award (top freshman in the FCS) in 2014 with 1,838 rushing yards, Edmonds won Patriot League Offensive Player of the Year as a sophomore. During the 2015 season he totaled over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns, with 1,648 coming on the ground. Standing a chance to break the all-time FCS rushing record, lower body injuries limited him to seven games as a senior in 2017. The season prior he was a first-team All-American with 1,800 yards rushing, leading the country with an average of 163.5 a game. 

Dynamic as a runner, Edmonds has an excellent spin move and jump cut which he uses regularly to make guys miss. With a low center of gravity and narrow frame, he's able to exploit the smallest of creases in a defense effectively. At this year's NFL Scouting Combine he ranked first amongst all running back prospects in the 3-cone drill and 20 yard short shuttle. Two drills that test a player's ability to change direction and measure their lateral quickness, combined with their short area explosion. Things very important to the success of NFL running backs. 

Edmonds provides production in the pass game, important for a running back of his ilk. He often smoothly slips out of the backfield presenting himself as an available checkdown option for the quarterback. In addition to being capable as pass catcher, he is also willing in pass protection, with the ability to be effective despite his size. 

The 5'9, 205 pound Harrisburg, PA native may not get an opportunity to become a featured back due to his diminutive stature and concerns of durability. However, he can become a lethal option in a specific role as a part of running back committee. It wouldn't be hard to envision him in a similar role to Darren Sproles, as he is alike in size and style. 

Quinton Flowers, South Florida 

While the mention of Lamar Jackson being asked to perform drills at wide receiver caused some headlines, another former dual-threat college quarterback's possible positional change went under the radar. After standing out as the starting signal caller at South Florida for three seasons, Quinton Flowers will potentially look to make the transition to running back in the NFL. Fortunately for him, he encompasses many traits which make for a successful prospect at the the position, with juke and jump cut ability that rivals any, and all, running back's. 

Both fearless and natural as a runner, Flowers already maintains a frame that supports him being able to deal with the rigors of being an NFL ball carrier. At 5'10, 210 pound he has a compact build, that is supported by a strong lower half, which allows him to take contact without issue. Making contact with him isn't always easy either, as he sizes up defenders well in the open field and is able to make them miss with regularity, often leaving them looking silly. The American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year in 2016, with 1,530 rushing yards, Flowers ran for at least 990 yards each of the last three seasons —with double digit scores on the ground. Including back to back 1,000 yard seasons in 2016-17.

The Miami, FL native has an excellent feel for allowing his blocks to set up and making the most of it by utilizing them. With that in his arsenal, as well as a natural ability to avoid potential contact, Flowers could become an effective option in the screen game, as well as a return man. While he will likely have to relinquish full-time duties as a quarterback, Flowers can also provide teams with extra security and added value as a 3rd string/emergency QB and in Wildcat formations.